Regulatory Radar — Fixed-Odds Betting (Ed. #5)

Week of June 22–26, 2026

The image of the week came from the World Cup: back-to-back matches, record audiences and betting odds appearing on screen and in the broadcasters’ commentary — until the topic exploded on social media and the government signaled it would act. Betting advertising became the dominant regulatory story of the moment, under pressure on several fronts at once: the Executive, which is preparing a limit on advertising during the tournament; consumer-protection enforcement; Congress; and the Supreme Court. In parallel, the SPA (the federal betting regulator) shut the door on “social network” features inside platforms, took the supplier-regime rules to a public hearing, and opened an audit of operators’ revenue. On the positive side, a federal court ruling eased one operator’s tax bill. Below, the points that deserve your attention.

Government moves to limit betting ads during the World Cup — and advertising takes center stage

The picture was striking: the broadcaster carrying every World Cup match showing live betting odds, with presenters reinforcing them on air. The backlash took over social media and the press, and the enforcement bodies stepped in: the National Consumer Secretariat opened an inquiry into this advertising, and the broadcast pulled back during the week, dropping real-time odds. On Friday, the Ministry of Finance itself raised the stakes, announcing that it will limit betting advertising in World Cup broadcasts within days — possibly as early as the round of 16 — through a ministerial rule (portaria) or a provisional measure (medida provisória). The idea is to treat betting ads like tobacco and alcohol, with a mandatory risk warning after each ad and new obligations for operators and broadcasters. Meanwhile, public prosecutors opened investigations into misleading advertising by influencers and abusive practices by platforms — withheld funds, account blocking, disproportionate rollover requirements and “extra income” promises — based on the Consumer Protection Code and the Betting Law.

What this means: for anyone who advertises, sponsors or uses influencers, the risk is no longer theoretical — it is a very near-term regulatory agenda: a federal restriction could be issued within days and apply during the tournament. It is worth reviewing immediately any media plans tied to the World Cup, live display of odds, risk warnings and ad messaging (no “extra income” or easy-win promises). The shape of this measure is likely to become the benchmark for all advertising in the sector.

In Congress, a fresh wave of restrictive bills — and the Health Committee advances on gambling disorder

The pressure on advertising also reached Congress. Within a few days, the lower house received several new betting bills: one banning all advertising and sponsorship in the sector (with health warnings), another barring betting by recipients of social-welfare programs and creating customer-verification duties for operators, and a third aimed at the integrity of sports broadcasts. In the same week, the Health Committee approved the rapporteur’s opinion on a broad text on the prevention and treatment of gambling disorder, consolidating more than a dozen proposals and now ready for a floor vote.

What this means: none of these texts is law yet, but the direction is clear and convergent — more restrictions on advertising and more duties to protect bettors. For operators and advertisers, now is the time to follow the process closely and, where possible, take part in the debate; some of these duties (such as customer verification) could require product changes if they advance.

And the dispute over who may legislate is heading to the Supreme Court

Pressure is also coming from states and municipalities. Several have advanced laws and bills limiting betting advertising — from restrictions on outdoor and public-transport media to bans on sponsorship and the use of public spaces. The most advanced case is a state law in Rio Grande do Sul restricting the sector’s advertising, which takes full effect in August and is being challenged before the Supreme Court; this week, a broadcasting association asked to join the case, adding to the Solicitor General’s filing in favor of suspending the law. A useful clarification: the circulating report that the Supreme Court “suspended advertising by states” is old (from 2024 and about a federal law) and does not refer to the Rio Grande do Sul law.

What this means: the point that matters most to clients is one of jurisdiction: betting advertising is regulated at the national level, and state or municipal laws restricting the sector tend to be challenged for encroaching on federal powers. The final word will be the Supreme Court’s — and the outcome could redraw the map of where you can and cannot advertise. Until then, operators active in multiple states face a patchwork of local rules.

SPA bars “social network” features on platforms — and warns it will enforce

Beyond advertising, the SPA made another significant move: it shut the door on so-called “social betting.” Responding to an operator’s formal query about a social-network feature inside the app — with a bet feed, public profiles, verified influencer accounts and even an “influence index” and user rankings — the regulator concluded that such features do not fit the sector’s rules. It then extended that view to the whole market through a circular letter sent to all operators. For the SPA, sharing bets, tips and results among users — even in a public, moderated environment — is an indirect form of data exchange barred by the rules, and it fuels engagement in a way that is incompatible with responsible gaming.

What this means: the message is direct and has teeth. Anyone who has, or is planning, a social feed, rankings, gamification based on betting volume, or influencer profiles inside the platform should review this now — the SPA said it may open enforcement and sanctioning proceedings. It is worth mapping the product’s “social” features, including those that seem harmless (likes, leaderboards, bet-slip sharing), and adjusting the roadmap before this turns into a penalty.

Suppliers (B2B): SPA takes the rules to a public hearing and signals the direction

The SPA held the public hearing on the rule that will recognize and regulate the market’s supplier chain — platforms and systems, games and studios, sports data, and customer-identification (KYC) services. Nothing is decided, and the regulator’s positions are preliminary and expressly “under study,” but there were important signals: there should be an exemption for a supplier that serves, exclusively, only companies within its own group; the simplified “direct license purchase” regime is likely to be dropped; and the general rule will be a Brazilian-incorporated entity, with some exceptions under study. The most sensitive point for foreign groups is liability: the SPA acknowledged there is currently no legal basis to automatically extend infractions to every company in the group. A rule is expected by the end of 2026, together with a dedicated technology solution to process applications.

What this means: for suppliers and vertically integrated operators, the direction is more pragmatic than the original draft suggested — but what matters lies in the details still open: the definition of economic group, the form of representation in Brazil and the co-liability of the foreign group. There will be a new round of comments; now is the time for suppliers and international groups to map their exposure and take part, because the final design will define who must register, where and under what liability.

SPA demands data from operators and opens an audit of revenue

The regulator also triggered enforcement through data. The SPA sent letters to operators flagging inconsistencies in the information reported to its monitoring system and signaled a cross-audit that may go back to January 2025 — with the possibility of revising declared revenue (GGR), which is the basis for the sector’s taxes.

What this means: enforcement is no longer only about who operates without a license; it now looks inside the licensed house as well. Operators should review now the consistency between what they report to the regulator, what they record internally and what they pay in taxes — historical inconsistencies can turn into retroactive assessments.

Federal ruling removes ISS from the PIS/COFINS tax base for one operator

On the judicial front, some good news for the sector. A federal court granted an authorized operator the right to exclude the municipal services tax (ISS) from the calculation base of the PIS and COFINS contributions, also recognizing the right to recover amounts overpaid. It is a first-instance decision, still subject to appeal, but it applies to the sector a tax thesis already well accepted in other industries.

What this means: there is room to revisit how these contributions are being calculated. It is worth assessing with your tax advisors whether the same argument applies to your operation — depending on volume, the cash impact can be material.

Market consolidation reaches the antitrust authority (CADE)

The sector’s consolidation gained an official record: an acquisition of control between companies in the betting market was submitted to review by CADE, the antitrust authority, with a notice published in the Official Gazette this week. It is another sign of the realignment of the regulated market, in which smaller brands tend to be absorbed by larger groups.

What this means: with a maturing regulatory framework and rising compliance demands, consolidation is likely to accelerate. For anyone considering buying, selling or raising capital, bear in mind that significant transactions go through antitrust review — and that regulatory due diligence (authorizations, data and liabilities) is increasingly decisive in deal value.

Looking ahead to next week

• World Cup advertising (urgent): the Ministry of Finance signaled it should issue, within days, a measure — a ministerial rule or a provisional measure — to limit betting advertising in broadcasts, possibly as early as the round of 16. This is the most urgent item to watch, with potentially immediate effect on media and sponsorships tied to the tournament.
• Suppliers (B2B): the SPA confirmed a new round of comments after the hearing — it is worth preparing submissions, especially on the definition of economic group and the co-liability of the foreign group.
• Supreme Court: the Rio Grande do Sul advertising law is on a priority track and awaits the Prosecutor General’s opinion — watch the limits of state powers.
• Senate: requests to hear the Minister of Finance and the head of the SPA on transparency and enforcement may advance in committee.
• Operators: the SPA’s data audit and the 24-hour payment-blocking deadline under the new rule remain open — it is worth having internal workflows ready.

Our team is available to discuss the impact of any of these topics on your business.

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. The analyses reflect the team’s understanding as of the publication date and may be revised in light of regulatory or case-law developments. For specific guidance on particular situations, please consult a member of our team. © Souto, Correa Advogados — Betting Regulation Practice.