Regulatory Radar | Fixed-Odds Betting – Ed. 11

Week of August 3 to 7, 2026

This week had two centers of gravity. At the Supreme Court, the trial began on whether the criminal ban on games of chance still stands, and it ended adjourned, with an important message for the industry. In the Executive branch, the government is preparing an ordinance that changes how betting platforms work from the inside. Add to that a change of command in the area that authorizes operators, mounting pressure from states and municipalities against advertising, a new dispute over the size of the market, and the postponement of a new tax on the sector. Below is what deserves your attention.

Supreme Court adjourns trial on games of chance and will hear it together with the challenges to the Betting Law

The Supreme Court began this week to consider whether the rule that criminalizes the operation of games of chance, set out in the old Criminal Misdemeanors Law, was received by the 1988 Constitution. The reporting justice voted to uphold the criminal ban, but another justice requested additional time to review the case and the trial was suspended. It was agreed that this case will be decided together with the lawsuits challenging the Betting Law, expected to begin from November.

What this means: The key point is the decision to combine the criminal debate on games of chance with the review of the Betting Law itself. In practice, the Court concentrated in a single block, set for year-end, the definitions on what remains prohibited and on the validity of the betting regime. It is the most important date on the sector’s radar. For now, nothing changes.

Government prepares ordinance that changes how betting platforms operate

The Secretariat of Prizes and Betting presented to the industry, in a meeting this week, a new ordinance with rules on how platforms must operate. Measures under discussion include a minimum interval of a few seconds between bets, an end to automatic betting, a ban on coin sound effects, timers and rankings of top winners, plus a requirement not to make withdrawals difficult. The text has not yet been published, but, according to the government, the content is already defined and publication may come as soon as next week. There is also talk of technical recertification of games within up to 180 days.

What this means: If confirmed, this is the most operationally significant change underway. It affects product design, the user experience and technical adaptation deadlines. It is worth following the publication closely and starting now to map what would need to change in product, technology and certification, because the adaptation period tends to run from the ordinance.

Change of command in the area that authorizes operators; employers’ union gains registration

The Official Gazette brought two institutional developments this week. The first is the change of command in the subsecretariat responsible for authorizing operators within the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting, with the departure of the incumbent and the appointment of a new head. The second is the granting of union registration to the employers’ union of São Paulo betting and online gaming operators, which now has formal representation of the category.

What this means: The change of command occurs precisely in the area that decides on authorizations, which calls for attention from anyone with an application under review or planning to file one. The registration of the employers’ union, in turn, gives the sector a formal interlocutor in the regulatory and labor discussions ahead.

States and municipalities advance against advertising, and the Rio Grande do Sul law is already at the Supreme Court

Outside Brasília, the wave of local rules against betting advertising is growing. Rio de Janeiro and Cuiabá have already issued decrees restricting ads in public spaces and on street furniture. In Belo Horizonte, the City Council has scheduled for next week the final vote on a bill banning billboards, giveaways and the association of brands with public events. São Paulo, Paraná and Fortaleza have similar proposals underway. In Rio Grande do Sul, the state law restricting betting advertising is already challenged at the Supreme Court: the case was given priority handling and the Federal Attorney General’s Office asked for its suspension, arguing that the matter falls under federal jurisdiction.

What this means: The risk is a patchwork of local rules, many of them open to challenge for encroaching on federal jurisdiction. The case on the Rio Grande do Sul law is the test case for this dispute and will serve as a benchmark for the others. For anyone doing outdoor media, sports sponsorship or activations in public spaces, it is worth mapping city by city what is already in force, even what may later be struck down in court.

Rising tax revenue and a dispute over the size of the market

The Federal Revenue Service reported collecting around R$ 7.3 billion in taxes on betting and gaming in the first half of 2026, up more than 80% over the same period in 2025. Much of the increase comes from the higher rate on operators’ revenue, which rose from 12% to 13% in March and has further steps scheduled for 2027 and 2028. It is worth noting that the World Cup did not produce the surge in betting many expected. In parallel, a dispute over other numbers gained traction this week: a survey by state finance secretariats estimated billions in household losses on betting and a significant volume of funds moving outside the legal market, figures that the association of legal betting operators publicly contested as incorrect and inflated.

What this means: Two messages. The first, concrete: the effective burden on the sector is rising, and revenue is following. The second, contextual: the numbers war fuels political pressure for more taxation and more restrictions. High illegal-market figures tend to be used to justify tougher rules for those who are legal. It is worth following closely the methodology of these surveys, because they become arguments in hearings and in bills.

Government postpones new tax on betting

According to the specialized press, the government decided to postpone sending Congress the selective tax on betting, envisaged under the tax reform to take effect in 2027. The rate has reportedly already been defined internally, but the text is not expected to be sent now, given the political climate. The issue remains alive and is expected to return to the table.

What this means: The postponement provides some planning breathing room, but does not remove the tax from the horizon. The rate and the final design are still unknown. It is worth keeping the issue on the radar for financial projections, because the levy remains scheduled for 2027.

Looking ahead to next week

• The new Secretariat of Prizes and Betting ordinance on how platforms operate may be published as soon as early next week.
• The Belo Horizonte City Council is expected to hold the final vote, on the 10th, on the restriction of betting advertising; if approved, it goes to the mayor for sanction.
• The rules of the Rio Grande do Sul betting advertising law are expected to take full effect still in August, with the case at the Supreme Court under priority handling.
• The Supreme Court left for November the joint trial on the criminalization of games of chance and the Betting Law.

Our team is available to discuss the impact of any of these topics on your business.

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. The analyses reflect the team’s understanding as of the date of publication and may be revised as regulations or case law evolve. For specific guidance on concrete situations, please consult a lawyer on the team. © Souto, Correa Advogados — Betting Regulation Practice.