Regulatory Radar | Fixed-Odds Betting – Ed. 19

Week of October 12 to 16, 2026

Last week, the ban took effect. This week, the courts upheld it, the balance-return deadline arrived and Congress began debating how much of it will survive. Below are the points that deserve your attention.

Ban update: what changed this week

The deadline for banks and payment institutions to return bettors’ balances expired on Wednesday (Oct. 14). Amounts not returned go to a dedicated account at Caixa, the federal bank. The Attorney General’s Office (AGU) said it will take action against companies that did not submit their data. The provisional measure provides that authorizations are terminated on October 25, with no refund of the license fee and no compensation.

What this means: the balance-return timeline has moved into the enforcement phase. Anyone with open items involving bettors, banks or Caixa should resolve them before Oct. 25. Operators that paid for a license should treat that amount as lost, unless Congress or the courts change course.

Congress receives 99 amendments, and most try to soften the ban

The deadline for amendments to the provisional measure ended on Tuesday (Oct. 13). A total of 99 were filed, 5 were withdrawn and 94 remain active. The largest group wants to preserve the authorized market and target only the illegal one, or to keep sports betting alone and ban slots and online games. There is also a tougher bloc: a single senator filed 17 amendments with severe restrictions, and another proposes a specific crime for operating the activity, with a 4 to 6 year sentence. The joint committee has not yet been installed.

What this means: the main risk is not the total ban surviving. It is a “middle ground” that saves sports betting and sacrifices online casino. Operators active in both verticals should follow this closely. A vote is expected only after the elections, which indicates that the final text will be decided by the Congress that takes office in February.

Courts: an operator’s injunction falls, and collective petitions fail to gain traction

Last week, a federal court in São Paulo allowed one operator to resume activity until Oct. 25. On Friday (Oct. 9), the president of the 3rd Regional Federal Court (TRF3) suspended that decision at the Union’s request and reinstated the ban. In Brasília, another operator’s writ of mandamus was dismissed without a ruling on the merits, because the chosen route cannot be used to challenge a law in the abstract. Two collective writs filed by industry bodies are before the 21st Federal Civil Court. In one, the injunction was denied on Oct. 11 for lack of demonstrated urgency. The other was reassigned to the same court on Tuesday (Oct. 13), with no ruling on the injunction. By its own request, the body does not seek to reopen betting now, but to prevent the termination of authorizations on Oct. 25 and to recover websites and profiles for customer service. At the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the challenges to the measure remain undecided on the injunction requests.

What this means: the courts remain cautious. Individual injunctions fall on appeal, and generic challenges run into procedural limits. The stronger argument now is to preserve authorizations and customer communication, without offering bets again. The press indicates the STF will rule only after the runoff (Oct. 25), which keeps the market offline.

Enforcement: blocking grows, and the illegal market reacts

The government reports more than 16,000 sites sent for blocking between September 25 and October 9. According to an industry survey, more than 200 new illegal sites appeared during the holiday weekend alone. The São Paulo Civil Police ran an operation with three arrests and a R$ 154 million asset freeze. The Treasury, according to Folha, is investigating 14 operators for possible under-reporting of revenue. The betting secretariat met with the Presidential Chief of Staff’s office, Serpro, the financial sector, the Central Bank and the Federal Police.

What this means: enforcement is focused on payment channels and advertising networks. Suppliers, fintechs and advertisers should review contracts and exposure to brands or operations linked to the illegal market.

Government studies taxing betting despite the ban

Folha reported that the government wants to include betting in the Selective Tax (Imposto Seletivo) through an adjustment to the tax reform regulations, even though the activity is currently prohibited. This is press information, with no official text published.

What this means: the proposal indicates that the government is working with a scenario of a regulated return, with a higher tax burden. Worth watching, since the fiscal design may weigh more than the ban in any future negotiation.

Looking ahead

• Next week precedes the runoff election (Oct. 25). An STF ruling on the provisional measure is unlikely before then.
• Federal licenses are set to end on Oct. 25, unless reversed in court. Watch for appeals involving operators with injunctions.
• Installation of the joint committee that will issue an opinion on the provisional measure is still pending.

Our team is available to discuss the impact of any of these topics on your business.

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. The analyses reflect the team’s understanding as of the publication date and may be revised as regulations or case law evolve. For guidance on specific situations, please consult a lawyer on our team. © Souto, Correa Advogados – Gaming & Betting Practice.