Regulatory Radar | Fixed-Odds Betting – Ed. 21

The re-election of the president who issued the ban gave the measure political backing, and the government has already said it wants it voted by year-end. The public hearing at the Supreme Court (STF) on Tuesday (Nov 3) is the main event of the coming week, and the congressional committee for the provisional measure has not even been installed. Meanwhile, companies are counting losses, discussing compensation and disputing numbers with the government. Here are the points that deserve your attention.

Re-election of the president who issued the measure strengthens the ban, and the government wants it voted by year-end

President Lula was re-elected on the night of Oct 25, with 51.79% of the vote against 48.21%. The ban leaves the election with reinforced political backing, and the argument that it would be electorally toxic lost strength. On Tuesday (Oct 27), the Minister of Institutional Relations listed the measure among the government’s three priorities in Congress, alongside the Public Security constitutional amendment and the zero-fare transit proposal, with the goal of voting it by year-end. He said the joint committees must be set up by Dec 20.

What this means: the re-elected government no longer has an electoral cost to weigh and is in a hurry, because the 2027 Congress will be more conservative. Industry pressure shifts to the legal merits at the STF and to negotiating the text in Congress. Year-end should be treated as the real negotiation window.

STF releases the order of Tuesday’s hearing, and the government speaks before the industry

Justice Luiz Fux set the schedule of the public hearing on the provisional measure: 28 participants, up to 10 minutes each. Clubs and the COB open in the morning. In the afternoon, the AGU, the Finance Ministry, the Sports Ministry and the PGR speak, followed by ANJL, IBJR and bodies such as CNI and Abert. The AGU asked for churches and anti-betting groups to be included, and industry associations asked to join as amici curiae. There is no injunction. There are signs the hearing may address a deal among government, companies and clubs, but its scope remains uncertain.

What this means: the hearing is a showcase to persuade the rapporteur, not a decision. The injunction ruling tends to come afterwards. Anyone with a position on transition, return of license fees or bettor protection should align arguments with the bodies that will speak. A partial deal, if any, may benefit some and leave others out.

None of the 19 federal court cases has an injunction in force

A survey of the federal regional courts in Brasília and São Paulo shows three injunctions denied, one overturned, two cases dismissed, three declinations of jurisdiction, and the collective writ of mandamus of an industry association suspended pending the STF.

What this means: the individual injunction route has lost strength, and the judicial way out runs through the Supreme Court. For losses already incurred, compensation claims gain weight.

Licenses lapsed on Oct 25, and the debate on license fees and compensation begins

The authorizations of 85 companies expired on Oct 25, with about R$ 2.55 billion paid in license fees and no refund. The Finance Ministry has not yet published the formal revocation ordinance, and there are requirements due by Dec 15. An industry association told its members it is preparing collective and individual claims for refund of license fees, investments and lost profits.

What this means: anyone considering a compensation claim should start gathering evidence of amounts paid, investments, contracts and losses. Meeting pending obligations by Dec 15 avoids handing the government an argument. The outcome depends on the STF and Congress.

Joint committee has members, but still no chair or rapporteur

Members were designated on Sept 30, but as of Oct 29 the committee had still not been installed. There were 99 amendments, 5 withdrawn. The measure lasts 60 days, extendable by another 60, with the clock suspended during the recess (Dec 23 to Feb 1). In practice, it only lapses in early March 2027. On Nov 9 it starts to lock the agenda, and the first 60-day period ends around Nov 23, with automatic extension. It is worth recalling that in 2004 a measure banning bingo was rejected by the Senate three months later.

What this means: the rapporteur will shape the text, and nobody knows yet who it will be. Without installation the committee does not move. Since validity runs to March, the government is not obliged to vote in November, but it said it wants to. It is worth mapping the members’ offices now.

Sponsorships: clubs ask for a transition and an operator tries to break a contract

Top-flight clubs will ask for a longer transition at the hearing. An operator asked to terminate a sponsorship contract worth R$ 150 million a year with a major club, claiming it became unviable after the measure. The club is awaiting Congress’s decision. Estimates point to about R$ 600 million in club revenue at risk.

What this means: sponsorship contracts enter a zone of renegotiation and force majeure debate. Anyone with a contract in force should review the regulatory-change, suspension and termination clauses before sending any notice.

Finance and Sports ministries disagree at the STF over Minas Gerais advertising decree

In an industry association’s case against the Minas Gerais decree banning betting advertising on public property and at public events, both ministries say the provisional measure emptied the case. The Finance Ministry sees an intrusion on federal competence, while the Sports Ministry defends state autonomy.

What this means: the question of who may regulate advertising, the Union or the states, remains open and may return if the measure falls or changes.

Illegal market and payment channels on the radar

Industry bodies identified 60,400 suspicious addresses, 34,000 of them with scam characteristics, and speak of almost 300 new sites a day (data from the bodies themselves, which have an interest in the topic). The Central Bank liquidated a payment institution that worked with betting. Brazil also signed the Macolin Convention against match-fixing.

What this means: banks, fintechs and payment providers should expect tougher scrutiny of operations tied to illegal platforms. Strengthen customer onboarding controls and transaction monitoring.

A war of numbers ahead of the hearing

A food-trade body attributed a 6.5% rise in food retail to the end of betting. Industry bodies dispute it: the methodology was not published, the 7.9% rise was already under way before the measure, and the weeks analyzed coincide with the refund of R$ 1.45 billion to bettors. On the fiscal side, estimates of lost revenue range from R$ 6.4 billion to almost R$ 50 billion through 2029, depending on source and methodology.

What this means: these numbers will appear at the hearing and in Congress as arguments. Inflated numbers tend to become the basis for more restriction or taxation, which is why methodology matters. Treat them as a data dispute, not as fact.

Looking ahead to next week

When	What happens
Mon, Nov 2	SPA/MF has on its agenda a meeting with the Minister of Justice and another on “betting advertising” (agenda not disclosed). STF deadlines extended for the holiday.
Tue, Nov 3, 10am	Public hearing at the STF (TV Justiça and YouTube). Morning: clubs and the COB. Afternoon: AGU (2pm), Finance Ministry, Sports Ministry, PGR, ANJL (3pm), IBJR, Abert, CNI (4pm). Late afternoon: academia. Closing scheduled for 5:10pm.
Wed, Nov 4	STF full court judges the case challenging lotteries created by municipalities, scheduled by Chief Justice Fachin (a judgment, not a hearing). Justice Nunes Marques’s injunction suspended municipal laws on the subject, and most amici favor upholding it.
Mon, Nov 9	Provisional measure begins to lock the Chamber’s agenda (urgency).
Around Nov 23	First 60-day period of the measure ends, with automatic extension for another 60. With the recess suspension, validity runs to early March 2027.
Dec 15	Deadline for remaining requirements cited by the Finance Ministry.
Dec 20	Deadline cited by the government for setting up the joint committees for priority items.

Our team is available to discuss the impact of any of these topics on your business.

This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. The analyses reflect the team’s understanding as of the publication date and may be revised as regulation or case law evolves. For guidance on specific situations, please consult a lawyer on our team. © Souto, Correa Advogados · Gaming & Betting Practice.